London

81 Chancery Lane
London
WC2A 1DD
01235 821 160
View map

Edinburgh

1 Lochrin Square
92 Fountainbridge
Edinburgh
EH3 9QA
01235 821 160
View map

Dublin Office

77 Lower Camden Street
Dublin 2
Ireland
D 02 XE 80

View map

Administrative Office

BH Office
Church Street
Ardington
Wantage
Oxfordshire
OX12 8QA
01235 821 160
View map

Send us a message
CLOSE X
Contact Us

Impacts of the new Personal Injury Guidelines in Ireland

But this ignores the performance of some of the other sweets – Snickers was 21% of people’s least favourite! Also, Twix had a rough day, with no one choosing it as their favourite, and 62% of people putting it in the bottom four. To highlight this, I created a points system, where if a sweet is chosen as someone’s first choice, it gets 8 points, second choice gets 7 and so on. When these are summed, we can see Twix doesn’t do much better than Bounty, with Twix scoring 178 points compared to Bounty’s 165:

So why hasn’t this sweet been targeted for removal? Maybe not being anyone’s favourite, but also not being anyone’s least favourite has kept it out of the firing line, while Bounty takes all the flak. This does give more evidence to the theory that Mars Wrigley have exploited Bounty’s problematic reputation for advertising exposure though – an issue that I am contributing to by writing this very article.

Now taking a step back to expose our biases – you may have noted that the four sweets I left at the bottom of the list in the initial ranking are much more likely to end up in people’s bottom four. This is likely due to people having a strong opinion on their favourites, spending more time on the top of the list, but not taking as much care with the bottom four, leaving the default options down there. There were a range of times taken to complete the survey (one respondent spending an agonising 6 hours on their choices), but I doubt the majority of this time was spent thinking which is worse out of two very similar tasting sweets.

#BringBackBounty

In a very strange turn of events, since the release of the “No Bounty” tub, Mars Wrigley have enacted a new advertising campaign, entitled “#BringBackBounty”.[5] In short – despite their obvious bias, they are aware that the Bountyless tubs would cause controversy, and have produced a promotional video where an actor portraying the Bounty sweet (I can’t believe I’m writing these words either) is reunited with their fellow Celebrations, after the world called for the company to #BringBackBounty. This is backed up by a figure that, according to yet another Mars Wrigley survey, 58% of consumers would miss Bounty if it were removed from the tub. Here we have the almost inverse of the 39% figure from earlier being used to SUPPORT Bounties staying in the tub! (I assume some people could not give a yes or no answer on this pivotal issue, and are the missing 3%).

It is clear that Mars Wrigley have made a biased decision, in support of their own advertising goals. While they are not held to the same standards as actuaries are via the Actuaries’ Code, I believe they have done untold damage to the reputation of the Bounty with this campaign. The official tweet from Celebrations featuring this video only has 42 retweets[6], compared to the tweet announcing the removal of Bounty having 1,808 retweets. It turns out that facilitating a damaging campaign against your own brand is one genie that cannot be put back in the bottle, unlike Bounties which can be safely returned to the Celebrations tub if you do not like them. A lesson in the power of bias for us all.

Conclusion

So, in conclusion, there is a lot more to the issue than Bounty not being to everyone’s taste. Some people actually very much like the sweet, and will no doubt be disappointed this Christmas if someone has purchased a “No Bounty” tub. However, will they be afraid to speak up thanks to the societal bias against this sweet stoked by Mars Wrigley, in fear of becoming a Bounty pariah? Only time will tell, but I hope that after reading this you learn to see things from the side of a Bounty fan, and try to avoid bias in your own life. If not, then a future of Bountyless Christmases awaits us all.

Sources:

  1. https://gbr.mars.com/news-and-stories/press-releases/mars-bars-bounty
  2. https://aprllp.com/cognitive-bias-and-the-actuary/
  3. https://www.britannica.com/science/confirmation-bias
  4. https://www.delish.com/uk/food-news/a38220318/celebrations-bounty-maltesers-teasers/
  5. https://www.prweek.com/article/1804582/bringbackbounty-celebrations-launches-next-stage-christmas-campaign
  6. https://twitter.com/UKCelebrations/status/1590300939541438465?
James McConnell

January 2023

September 2022 Exam Results 

*IFoA total counts only exams taken by at least one APR staff member in September 2022. The IFoA pass rate across all exams was broadly similar at 43.7% 

Highlights 

Congratulations to all our staff on their hard-earned results! However, special mention goes to: 

 

Jack Foley

January 2023

 

Shock Events and Life Expectancy

Impacts of the new Personal Injury Guidelines in Ireland

In this article David O’Mahony examines how the new personal injury guidelines have been affecting the Irish General Insurance market and considers the likely future impacts of the changes.

READ MORE
Which soft skills are most valuable in actuarial work?

How important really are ‘Soft Skills’ in business? Gary Heslop takes a deep dive into how strong skills in areas such as Communication, Judgement and Management can make all the difference for high-performing Actuaries.

READ MORE
Basics of Property Direct and Facultative Insurance

The UK Commercial Property Insurance market is worth close to £7 billion and has been the subject of considerable disruption in the last few years. But how has this shaped the market? Jack Foley and Thomas Pycroft explain.

READ MORE
JFAR Risk Perspective 2022

In this article, a handful of APR’s newest recruits summarise the 2022 JFAR Risk Perspective and give an insight to the current risks high-quality actuarial work is facing, including topics such as sustainability and technology.

READ MORE
Avoiding Actuarial Embarrassment

Such is the tough, unforgiving nature of the actuarial world that there is no way to make sure every calculation you perform is correct. In this article, George Fairbrother and Matthew Gregg discuss methods of checking to give you the best chance of keeping errors to a minimum.

READ MORE
What Does ChatGPT Mean For The Actuarial Profession?

ChatGPT is a computer program designed to mimic human conversation that can respond to written prompts. An anonymous author explains what impacts AI like ChatGPT could have on the actuarial industry – could robots replace us?

READ MORE
Celebrationsgate – A Bounty Of Bias

James McConnell explores a light-hearted festive take on the issue of bias, and how this has lead to “No Bounty” Celebrations tubs.

READ MORE
September 2022 Exam Results 

The September 2022 exam results have been published and APR student staff achieved an impressive 87.5% pass rate across all IFoA exams taken. In this article, Jack Foley compares our performance with the industry average.

READ MORE
Shock Events and Life Expectancy

Life expectancy is an uncomplicated statistic familiar to actuaries and non-actuaries alike, but its simplicity can often be deceptive. Matthias Wuest explains how shock events can conceal real trends in life expectancy data.

READ MORE
The changing shape of demand for APR’s services

Chris Bryce explains how the shape of demand for APR’s services has been changing, and how we continue to utilise our staff’s experience to support and deliver for our clients.

READ MORE